Since 2013, two epidemic waves of avian influenza H7N9 human infections have affected China, with over 400 human cases reported to date, a case fatality rate of approximately 30%, and no human to human transmission established to date.

The large majority of human cases have been linked to exposure in live-bird markets, where people sell and buy poultry.But what makes some of those markets more at risk than others? And where are the areas where this disease could potentially spread elsewhere in Asia?

Based on a retrospective study of the spatial distribution of markets infected by H7N9 in 2013 and 2014, they developed a spatial model that can accurately predict the risk of market H7N9 infection in China, and can be extrapolated to Asia.